Wait for a real move
The bot does not trade tiny wiggles. It only pays attention when the crypto price has moved meaningfully from the start of the 5-minute window.
Polymarket.upneja.ai
Current read-only Polymarket shadow strategy.
Clean current-state view for the active tightened gate. No wallet, no orders, no live capital. Older strategy trades are archived separately below so they do not pollute the live view.
Plain-English strategySelf-optimizerCurrent strategyOld strategy archiveSource: data/book_shadow_journal.jsonl
Strategy, in plain English
We watch the live order book for Polymarket’s 5-minute crypto up/down markets. The question is simple: is BTC, ETH, SOL, or XRP going to finish this 5-minute window above or below where it started?
Compare price to probability
It estimates whether the move is likely to continue, then compares that estimate to the actual price Polymarket sellers are asking.
Check the real fill
It does not assume we can buy at the best displayed price. It walks the visible order book and calculates the real average fill price.
Say no most of the time
If the contract is too expensive, the move is too small, the evidence is thin, or the fill price is bad, the bot does nothing.
Current mode: paper/shadow only. “Execution” here means a simulated fill against the live book, not a real-money order.
Self-optimizer status
The optimizer searches stricter paper-only gates, then refuses to promote anything until the holdout sample is large enough. It is allowed to improve the shadow scanner, not place trades.
Locked: collect more data
No candidate has passed the deterministic holdout gate yet.
Best candidate
drift5_vwap0.55_edge0.08_60-210s
Holdout evidence
1 trades · 85.9% ROI · 100.0% win rate
Why not promoted
too_few_holdout_trades
Safety: this is a self-optimizing paper loop. Live orders, wallets, and private keys are still absent.
Current strategy
Active tightened gate only. If this says zero trades, the bot is correctly waiting.
6 wins · 5 losses
Realized shadow PnL
-$40.76
ROI on settled stake
-3.7%
Win rate
54.5%
Settled decisions
11
Settled stake
$1,100
Max drawdown
$375.15
Current equity curve
Only settled trades accepted by the active strategy cohort.
BTC
-$200
0W / 2L-100.0%$200 stake
ETH
$50.5
2W / 1L16.8%$300 stake
SOL
$222.8
3W / 0L74.3%$300 stake
XRP
-$114.06
1W / 2L-38.0%$300 stake
Current decision tape
Accepted current-strategy candidates only.
| Time | Market | Dir | Outcome | VWAP | Prob | Edge | PnL | Drift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:17 PM | sol-updown-5m-1782083700 | UP | UP | $0.58 | 85.0% | 31.0% | $71.25 | 6.88 → 9.63 bps |
| 04:23 AM | eth-updown-5m-1782274800 | DOWN | DOWN | $0.53 | 85.0% | 34.0% | $89.21 | -13.36 → -29.68 bps |
| 04:23 AM | sol-updown-5m-1782274800 | DOWN | DOWN | $0.53 | 85.0% | 35.0% | $88 | -23.08 → -56.25 bps |
| 04:23 AM | xrp-updown-5m-1782274800 | DOWN | DOWN | $0.54 | 85.0% | 34.0% | $85.94 | -15.45 → -58.17 bps |
| 06:02 PM | btc-updown-5m-1782324000 | DOWN | UP | $0.58 | 85.0% | 28.0% | -$100 | -12.04 → 9.88 bps |
| 06:02 PM | eth-updown-5m-1782324000 | DOWN | UP | $0.62 | 85.0% | 23.0% | -$100 | -18.80 → 9.56 bps |
| 06:02 PM | xrp-updown-5m-1782324000 | DOWN | UP | $0.63 | 85.0% | 27.0% | -$100 | -11.43 → 16.19 bps |
| 06:32 PM | eth-updown-5m-1782325800 | UP | UP | $0.62 | 85.0% | 23.0% | $61.29 | 6.54 → 4.44 bps |
| 08:57 PM | sol-updown-5m-1782334500 | DOWN | DOWN | $0.61 | 85.0% | 25.0% | $63.56 | -5.92 → -5.92 bps |
| 08:57 PM | xrp-updown-5m-1782334500 | DOWN | UP | $0.59 | 85.0% | 29.0% | -$100 | -5.59 → 0.93 bps |
| 08:47 AM | btc-updown-5m-1782636300 | UP | DOWN | $0.64 | 85.0% | 21.0% | -$100 | 5.57 → -3.55 bps |
Old strategy archive
Separated from the main dashboard. Kept for auditability, not counted in current PnL.
7 wins · 7 losses
Realized shadow PnL
-$1,175.93
ROI on settled stake
-33.6%
Win rate
50.0%
Settled decisions
14
Settled stake
$3,500
Max drawdown
$1,220.62
Old strategy equity curve
Archived trades from the earlier looser gate.
BTC
-$398.97
2W / 2L-39.9%$1,000 stake
ETH
-$329.95
2W / 2L-33.0%$1,000 stake
SOL
-$373.46
1W / 2L-49.8%$750 stake
XRP
-$73.56
2W / 1L-9.8%$750 stake
Old decision tape
Archived accepted candidates evaluated against Coinbase proxy candles.
| Time | Market | Dir | Outcome | VWAP | Prob | Edge | PnL | Drift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:11 AM | btc-updown-5m-1782036600 | DOWN | UP | $0.63 | 96.7% | 34.7% | -$250 | -2.95 → 0.84 bps |
| 10:11 AM | eth-updown-5m-1782036600 | UP | DOWN | $0.7 | 99.8% | 31.8% | -$250 | 2.89 → -0.35 bps |
| 10:11 AM | sol-updown-5m-1782036600 | DOWN | DOWN | $0.66 | 87.5% | 22.5% | $126.54 | -6.75 → -12.16 bps |
| 10:11 AM | xrp-updown-5m-1782036600 | DOWN | UP | $0.42 | 97.9% | 62.9% | -$250 | -0.87 → 0.87 bps |
| 10:17 AM | btc-updown-5m-1782036900 | DOWN | UP | $0.84 | 96.7% | 13.7% | -$250 | -2.72 → 1.35 bps |
| 10:17 AM | eth-updown-5m-1782036900 | DOWN | DOWN | $0.65 | 97.9% | 35.9% | $135.29 | -1.85 → -0.81 bps |
| 10:17 AM | sol-updown-5m-1782036900 | DOWN | UP | $0.81 | 97.9% | 19.9% | -$250 | -4.06 → 12.17 bps |
| 10:23 AM | btc-updown-5m-1782037200 | UP | UP | $0.92 | 99.8% | 7.8% | $21.74 | 4.90 → 10.07 bps |
| 10:23 AM | eth-updown-5m-1782037200 | UP | UP | $0.88 | 97.1% | 10.1% | $34.76 | 3.81 → 11.55 bps |
| 10:23 AM | xrp-updown-5m-1782037200 | UP | UP | $0.65 | 99.1% | 49.1% | $131.75 | 0.87 → 17.39 bps |
| 10:41 AM | btc-updown-5m-1782038400 | UP | UP | $0.76 | 98.1% | 23.1% | $79.3 | 4.17 → 0.41 bps |
| 10:41 AM | eth-updown-5m-1782038400 | UP | DOWN | $0.68 | 99.8% | 32.8% | -$250 | 3.81 → -2.20 bps |
| 10:41 AM | sol-updown-5m-1782038400 | UP | DOWN | $0.73 | 99.8% | 28.8% | -$250 | 6.75 → -13.50 bps |
| 10:41 AM | xrp-updown-5m-1782038400 | UP | UP | $0.85 | 99.8% | 21.8% | $44.69 | 6.96 → 0.00 bps |
Guardrails
- No wallet, no private keys, no broker credentials, no live orders.
- Settlement is explicitly marked as proxy until official Chainlink settlement is integrated.
- The top of this site reports the active strategy only; old trades live in the archive.